In recent years, the media have struck the alarm Mass loss of use of automation and robotics– Some studies predict that up to 50% of current jobs or tasks may be automated in the coming decades. Although this subject has received significant attention, a large part of the press focuses on potential problems without proposing realistic solutions or considering new opportunities.
The economic impacts of AI, robotics and automation are complex subjects that require a more complete perspective to understand. Universal basic income, for example, is the answer? Many believe it, and there are a number of experiences in progress. But this is only a strategy, and without a source of sustainable financing, universal basic income may not be practical.
As automation Continue to accelerate, we will need a several -component approach to facilitate the transition. In short, we must update major socio-economic strategies for a new century of rapid progress. How, then, plan practical solutions to support these new strategies?
Take history as an approximate guide to the future. With hindsight, technological revolutions have three common themes.
First, past revolutions have produced deep advantages to productivity, increasing human well-being. Secondly, technological innovation and technological dissemination have accelerated over time, each iteration exercising more pressure on human capacity to adapt. And thirdly, the machines have gradually replaced more elements of human work, with human societies adapting to new forms of work – from agriculture to service to service, for example.
Public and private solutions must therefore be developed to approach each of these three components of change. Let us explore some practical solutions for each in turn.
Figure 1. Structural impacts of technology in the 21st century. Refer to Annex I for quantitative graphics and technological examples corresponding to numbers (1-22) in each edge.
Solution 1: Capture new opportunities thanks to an aggressive investment
The rapid emergence of new technologies promises an opportunity bonus for the economic winners of the 21st century. This technological arms race promises to be a global affair, and the winners will be determined in part by who is able to build the fastest and most efficient future economy. Private and public sectors have a role to play in stimulating growth.
At the country level, several nations have created competitive strategies to promote research and development investments as automation technologies become more mature.
Germany and China have two of the most notable growth strategies. Germany Industry plan 4.0 Target a 50% increase in manufacturing productivity via digital initiatives, while half reducing the necessary resources. China Made in China 2025 national strategy fixes ambitious targets and provides subsidies to innovation and interior production. It also includes the construction of new conceptual cities, invest in robotic capacitiesAnd subsidize high -tech acquisitions abroad to become the leader in certain high -tech industries. For China, in particular, technological innovation is partly taken by the fear that technology disturbs social structures and government control.
These opportunities are not limited to existing economic powers. Progress in Estonia After the break of the Soviet Union, a good case study in transition to a digital economy. The nation quickly implemented capitalist reforms and has been transformed into an economy focused on technology in preparation for a massive technological disturbance. Internet access was declared a right in 2000, and the country’s classrooms were equipped for a digital economy, with coding as a basic educational requirement from kindergarten. Large internet -band speeds in Estonia are among the fastest in the world. Consequently, the World Bank now classifies Estonia as a high -income country.
Solution 2: Write an increased change rate with more agile education systems
Education and training are currently not set for the speed of change in the modern economy. Schools are always based on a single teaching model, the school offering the basis of a single career for life. With the content becoming obsolete faster and quickly degenerating costs, this system can be unbearable in the future. To help workers more easily move from one job to another, for example, we have to make education a more agile and life business.
Primary and university education can still play a role in training fundamental thinking and general education, but it will be necessary to reduce the increase in prices for tuition fees and increase accessibility. Open massive online courses (MOOC) and open registration platforms are early demonstrations of what the future of general education could look like: inexpensive, efficient and flexible.
The Georgia Tech online engineering control program (a fraction of the cost of residential tuition fees) is an early example in manufacturing university education More broadly available. Similarly, nanodegrees or microcredisters provided by online education platforms such as Udacity and Coursera can be used for half-costly adjustments at low cost. The AI itself can be deployed to complete the learning process, with applications such as tutorials improved by AI or personalized content recommendations supported by automatic learning. Recent developments in neuroscience research could optimize this experience by perfectly adapting content and delivery to the learner’s brain to maximize retention.
Finally, companies looking for more personalized skills can play a more important role in education, providing training during employment for specific capacities. A potential model is to associate with community colleges to create learning learning style, where students work part -time in parallel with their education. Siemens launched such a model in four states and is Develop a game book So that other companies do the same.
Solution 3: Improve social security nets to smooth automation impacts
If the job losses planned for automation materialize, the modernization of existing social security networks will become more and more a priority. Although the question of security nets can become quickly politicized, it should be noted that each previous technological revolution came with modifications corresponding to the social contract (see below).
Figure 2. Labor laws have historically adapted as technology and society progressed
Solutions such as universal basic income (monthly payment without attachment to all citizens) are attractive in the concept, but somewhat difficult to implement in the first measure in countries such as the United States or Japan which already have a high debt. In addition, universal basic income can create dissiscivals to stay in the workforce. A similar edifying story in the design of the program was the Commercial adjustment assistance (TAA), which was designed to protect industries and workers from globalization import competition, but is considered a missed opportunity due to insufficient coverage.
A short -term solution could take the form of graduated salary insurance (compensation for those who have forced to take a less paid job), including health insurance subsidies to persons directly affected by automation, with incentives to return quickly to the labor market. Another subject to resolve is the geographic inadequacy between workers and jobs, which can be discussed by mobility aid. Finally, a training allowance can be issued to individuals as a way to go up.
Decision -makers can intervene to reverse recent historical trends that have changed labor income to capital owners. Balance could be returned to work by placing higher taxes on capital – an example is recently proposed “Robot tax” where the taxation would be on the work rather than the person who performs it. In other words, if an autonomous car accomplishes the task that has been carried out by a human, the carpooling society will always pay the tax as if a human was driving.
Other solutions may involve the distribution of work. Some countries, such as France and Sweden, have experienced the redistribution of working hours. The idea is to cap the weekly hours, in order to have more employees and work more uniformly. So far, these programs have had Mixed resultsWith lower unemployment but high costs for taxpayers, but are potential models that can continue to be tested.
We cannot stop growth, and we must not either. With the roles in response to the change of evolution, the social contract should also the contract between the stakeholders. The government will continue to play an essential role as a stabilizing “thumb” in the invisible hand of capitalism, regulating and amortizing against extreme volatility, especially in the labor markets.
However, we already see business leaders assuming part of the role traditionally played by the government – thinking of measures aimed at remedying the risks of climate change or economic proposals to combat unemployment – partly due to greater agility of adaptation to change. Interdisciplinary collaboration and creative solutions of all parties will be essential to manufacture the Future economy.
Note: the complete document on which this article is based is available here.
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