Will the mergers and acquisition market be resumed next year and, with it, the IPO pipeline?
And what about the technological labor market, which has again seen tens of thousands of workers in the United States alone lose their job in 2024?
Each year, we offer predictions for the world of startups in the coming year. Sometimes we are right – as last year, when we properly predicted that the IPOs would not come back in 2024. Sometimes, we are also mistaken, when we expected the frenzy of The AI cools (lol).
Thus, with a big grain of salt, here are the five main trends that we are watching in the new year.
A rebound of mergers and acquisitions?
There is a lot of optimism according to which the change of administration in the federal government will relaunch an environment of mergers and slow acquisitions that many believe too regulated.
The mergers and acquisitions involving startups supported by VC have slowed down in recent years – by Crunchbase data – And that has greatly affected VCS’s ability to return the feedback to their LPS and therefore collect new funds.
Many VCs hope for a change in the Federal Commerce Commission And American Department of Justice Will jump the activity of mergers and acquisitions after years of a regulatory environment that is too zealous Amazonproposed an acquisition of $ 1.4 billion Irobot.
While the big cases that have been linked in criticisms make the headlines, other smaller agreements under the radar did not materialize because they became more expensive and judged were not worth the money and the hassles.
However, although the change is inevitable in regulatory agencies, there are always concerns about how the economy and the new administration will be friendly for both technology and mergers and acquisitions.
Increase in prices – which president elected Donald Trump A promised – could cause an increase in inflation rates, which increases interest rates. In addition, while Trump has spoken of less regulation, he also criticized the power that Big Tech holds. His appointment of Gail Slater – a frequent critic of Big Tech – to direct the Ministry of JusticeAntitrust efforts have probably caused a break in Silicon Valley.
Nevertheless, many hope that the mergers and acquisitions market will resume – and with it the IPO pipeline – and that the liquidity of past investments will circulate freely.
– Chris Metinko
2025 The year of IPOs come back?
After another slow year in 2024 for the new technological lists, we expect the IPO markets to resume in 2025. A year ago, the prospects were not optimistic. What has changed?
“I think there is a lot of confidence in the market. The stock markets are negotiated at peaks of all time, ”said Ran Ben-Tzur of the Legal Consulting Cabinet Fenwick & West. And “there has been a rotation to focus on growth, which is obviously ideal for technology.”
For the moment, two high -level companies have deposited: based in Sweden KlarnaA buy now, pay later a supplier who posed confidentially with the Commission of securitiesAnd Brain systemsA flea company AI that filed in September.
“We should see the companies start testing public procurement in 2025 in all sectors – Fintech, Cyber, AI and SaaS, among others,” said Nina AchadjianA partner at Ventures IndexesBy e-mail.
“We will start to see the momentum at the start of the year, and we will really speed up, over the year,” predicted Ben-Tzur, who saw an early momentum in 2024 which then reduced.
– Gene
AI and Blockchain could match the big dollars
IA funding continues its hot pace. More than half of the 28 billion dollars last month in funding funding went to IA companies, with AI companies in everything, from robotics to marketing through strengthening health care.
AI generationary companies that create models, such as xai And AnthropicLifting apparently at will massive towers, while many applications and agent AI also seem to have few problems to increase Big towers.
Last month, based in San Francisco WriterA creator of Applications and AIs of AI of Quick Start for Work Flows in Health, Retail and Financial Services, locked a C series of 200 million dollars which evaluated the IA platform Generative focused on the company at $ 1.9 billion.
However, some turn to the intersection of the new great tech – AI – and web3, its last great thing.
More specifically, what role could blockchain help develop AI economy, especially with so many startups creating AI agents? Some investors see a significant potential between the two – especially as blockchain and web3, turn into people’s awareness with the explosion of cryptography prices.
It is possible that AI agents work even faster on the blockchain because security is already integrated – not something that was added later, because it was on our current web 2.0 platforms. Efficiency could make AI even after and more dynamic, while being more user -friendly and cheaper for businesses.
It is very early for the intersection of blockchain and AI, but certainly something to look at.
– Chris Metinko
A white collar recession will persist
During the Summit of Boom de la Licorne in 2021, highly funded startups were in a crazy hiring. This allowed qualified workers to take advantage of both well -paid work and a certain degree of professional mobility in the fields, from programming to marketing through project management.
Of course, it didn’t last. Things turned south from 2022, with dozens of high-mothers who cut the staff and those who have still used more and more to stay in place. It’s a bit difficult to assess where we are currently in the cycle, but anecdotal and by media statementIt seems more difficult than usual to win a well -paid job in a mature technological company or a funded startup.
For 2025, we predict that the labor market will remain difficult in the scores of areas formerly hot for technological hiring. Mature startups and public companies, in particular, will be vigilant on hot air balloon costs and will avoid the types of moon moon efforts that many have pursued.
You could say that generating AI, where financing and hiring remain high, is an exception. However, the counter argument is that these are the companies developing the most suitable technologies to replace human workforce in other white-collar industries. So, which is good for them, might not be good for the rest of us.
– Joanna Glasner
Space and defense technology will be booming
The days when Silicon Valley was delicate with regard to the development of military technology is clearly over.
In mid -November, startups of defense technology – defined as those in military sectors, national security and police – had already raised nearly $ 3 billion in 85 rounds, by Crunchbase data. This represents a new venture capital investment record in the sector, beating the $ 2.6 billion lifted by such startups in 2022.
A number of factors play in the new comfort of the technological industry with defense technology. Governments rush to integrate the most advanced AI technology in their weapons and defense systems while conflicts proliferate from Ukraine in the Middle East. American-Chinese tensions are likely to remain heated under the new Trump administration, in particular with regard to China’s ambitions with Taiwan.
There is also a large amount of overlap between defense technology, aerospace and industrial technology – sectors that are likely to have strong support from the White House and Allies like Spacex CEO Elon Musk.
THE PentagonThe budget demand of 2025 is $ 850 billion, with large allowances for unmanned systems and AI. Stimulated by the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, Europe also spends billions On research on defense technology, including new intelligent weapons powered by AI, more advanced drones and better radar technology.
For 2025, we predict that business investments in defense technology will continue to grow, supported by public spending and more friendly relations between Silicon Valley and DC
– Mariser Van Romburgh
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