There’s been a lot of talk about AI PCs this year, but has it really delivered on its promises? A new analysis of Trend Strength claims that the significant increase in laptop sales in 2024 has more to do with Windows 11 updates than sophisticated new AI features.
“The impact of AI-integrated laptops on the overall market remains limited for now,” the report said. “However, AI features are expected to integrate naturally into laptop specifications as brands gradually integrate them, leading to a steady increase in AI laptop penetration rates.”
The report does not specify what is meant by “AI-integrated laptops”, although it is reasonable to assume that it refers to Copilot+ PCs, which integrate a neural processing unit (NPU) more powerful that can perform local AI processing.
There are, however, several reasons for this that one can speculate about. First, the TrendForce report states that the North American consumer market has been dominated by “aggressive promotions” and “entry-level models.” Copilot+ PCs, meanwhile, cost $999 and up, aimed at more premium segments. These just aren’t the types of laptops that currently dominate the mainstream Windows PC market.
In order to get people to pay a premium for these AI PCs, they really need to be able to sell themselves on the benefits the AI capabilities will bring them – and that doesn’t seem to be the case yet.
Most people rely on cloud-based AI tools like ChatGPT or find existing hardware sufficient for tasks like video calling or document editing. For professionals, AI PCs may offer efficiency benefits for tasks like video editing, but the average user sees limited immediate utility in them, reducing the perceived need to upgrade now.
The privacy controversy and delays following the recall certainly didn’t help the situation either. After all, it was supposed to be the flagship AI feature of Copilot+ PCs – and it’s only rolling out now, almost six months later.
So while AI may not have been the big marketing hit Microsoft hoped for, the increase in PC sales is still nice to see. Global laptop shipments are expected to grow another 4.9% to 183 million units in 2025. As Windows 10 end of support draws ever closer, more businesses and consumers will be forced to upgrade.
However, the phasing out of Windows 10 has become the main motivation for purchasing new laptops. Many older systems lack the hardware requirements for Windows 11, such as TPM 2.0, forcing users to replace otherwise functional devices. This has led to significant demand for AI-free laptops compatible with the new operating system. Businesses and consumers upgrading for compliance or functionality reasons are prioritizing cost-effective models over experimental AI-enabled PCs.
As AI PCs evolve and the technology matures, their appeal could grow, especially if more software is optimized for NPUs and prices fall. However, the AI push remains a secondary factor to the more immediate requirement to transition to Windows 11. This highlights a mismatch between industry innovation and consumer needs, with the latter focused on affordability and essential features rather than speculative advances.