Machines replacing humans at the workplace have been a perpetual concern since the industrial revolution and a subject of discussion growing by the rise of automation in recent decades. But so far, media threshing has the full on information on how automation – especially robots, which do not need humans to work – really affect employment and wages.
The recently published document, “Robots and jobs: evidence of the American labor markets,“By the MIT teacher And the professor of the University of Boston Pascual Restrepo, Phd ’16, notes that industrial robots have a negative impact on workers.
The researchers found that for each robot added for 1,000 workers in the United States, wages decrease by 0.42% and the employment / population ratio decreases by 0.2 percentage points – to date, this means that the loss of around 400,000 jobs. The impact is more important in the fields where robots are deployed: adding one more robot in an area of turnip (geographic areas used for economic analysis) reduces employment by six workers in this area.
To conduct their research, economists has created a model in which robots and workers compete for the production of certain tasks.
The industries adopt robots to various degrees, and the effects vary in different parts of the country and between different groups – the automotive industry has adopted robots more than other sectors, and workers who are with lower and average income, carry out a Manual work and live in the rust belt and Texas are among the most likely to have their work affected by robots.
“This is obviously a very important problem given all anxiety and excitement about robots,” said Acemoglu. “Our evidence shows that robots are increasing productivity. They are very important for continuous growth and for businesses, but at the same time, they destroy jobs and reduce demand for labor. These effects of robots should also be taken into account. »»
“This does not mean that we should be opposed to robots, but it implies that a more holistic understanding of what their effects must be part of the discussion ….” They must be combined with other technological changes that create jobs. “
Industrial robots are automatically controlled, reprogrammable and versatile that can do a variety of things such as welding, paint and packaging. They are completely autonomous and do not need humans to make them work. Industrial robots multiplied in the United States between 1993 and 2007, Acemoglu and Restrepo write, at a rate of a robot for a thousand workers. Europe is slightly ahead of the United States in the adoption of industrial robots; The rate reached 1.6 robots per thousand workers during this period.
Technology improvements negatively affect wages and employment thanks to travel effectin which robots or any other automation perform tasks formerly performed by workers. Technology also has more positive productivity effects By making tasks that are easier to accomplish or the creation of new jobs and tasks for workers. Researchers have said that automation technologies are still creating travel and productivity effects, but robots create a stronger travel effect.
Acemoglu and RestrePo examined the use of robots in 19 industries, as well as data from the census and survey on the American community for 722 travel zones, finding a negative relationship between exposure of a turnip area to Robots and its labor market results after 1990.
The addition of a robot to a geographical area reduces employment in this area by six workers.
Between 1990 and 2007, the increase in robots (approximately one per thousand workers) reduced the average employment ratio / population in an area of 0.39 percentage points, and the average salary of 0.77%, compared to In turnipouts without exposure to robots, they found. This implies that adding a robot to an area reduces employment in this area of approximately six workers.
But what is happening in a geographical area affects the economy as a whole, and robots in an area can create positive benefits. These advantages for the rest of the economy include the reduction in goods prices and the creation of shared capital income gains. Understanding this overflow, a robot for a thousand workers has a little less impact on the population as a whole, which leads to an overall reduction of 0.2 point of the employment / population ratio and reducing wages by 0.42% . Thus, the addition of a robot reduces employment to the national scale by 3.3 workers.
In a separate Study of the adoption of robots in FranceACEMOGLU and its co-authors have found that French manufacturing companies that have added robots have become more productive and profitable, but that the increase in the use of robots has led to a drop in the employment industry.
Disproportionate impacts
The impact of robots varies between the different industries, geographic areas and population groups. Unsurprisingly, the effect of robots is concentrated in manufacturing. The automotive industry has adopted robots more than any other industry, write researchers, employing 38% of existing robots with adoption of 7.5 robots per thousand workers.
The electronics industry employs 15% of robots, while plastics and chemicals use 10%. Employees of these industries have seen the most negative effects, and researchers also consider the negative effects for construction and retail workers, as well as personal services.
While the automotive industry has adopted robots at a faster pace and to a greater extent than the other sectors, this industry has not generated the results of the study. The impact of robots was consistent when this industry was removed from the equation, write the researchers.
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Robots are the most likely to affect manual routine professions and workers in the lower and average class, and in particular blue collars, including machinists, assemblers, material managers and welders, Acemoglu and Restrepo . Men and women are affected by the adoption of robots, although men a little more. For men, the impacts are most visible in manufacturing jobs. For women, the impacts were observed in non -manufacturing jobs.
Robots negatively affect workers at all levels of education, although workers without university degrees have been much more affected than those with a university degree or more. Researchers have also found that the adoption of robots has no positive effect on workers holding advanced master’s degree or diplomas, which could indicate that, unlike other technologies, industrial robots do not complete Not directly large workers.
Some parts of the United States have experienced a relatively low adoption of robots, while in other states, including Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Texas and Virginia, robots were more adopted along the Order of two to five robots for a thousand workers. In parts of Texas, this number goes to five to 10 per thousand workers, the researchers revealed. Detroit was the travel area with the highest exposure to robots.
Overall, robots have a mixed effect: replacing jobs that relatively high manufacturing employees performed, while making companies more efficient and more productive, Acemoglu said. Some areas are the most affected by the mixed impact of robots. “In the United States, especially in the industrial heart, we see that the effect of travel is important,” he said. “When these jobs disappear, these workers will take other jobs from low -wage workers. It has a negative effect and demand decreases for some of the retail jobs and other service jobs. »»
Acemoglu and RestrePo stress that examining the future effect of robots includes great uncertainty, and it is possible that the impact on employment and wages can change when robots become more widespread. Industries that adopt more robots in recent decades could have experienced other factors, such as falling demand or international competition, and travel areas may be affected by other negative shocks.
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But the researchers said that their article was the first step in exploring the implications of automation, which will become more and more widespread. There are relatively few robots in the American economy today and the economic impacts could just start.
Robotic technology should continue to develop, with an aggressive scenario predict that the robots will be quadruple In the world in 2025. Conservative scenario, the stock of robots could increase a little less triple, resulting in a drop of 0.6 percentage point of the employment / population ratio and a wages growth to 1%.
The economic crisis stimulated by the COVVI-19 pandemic will further exacerbate the good and bad impacts of robots and technology, Acemoglu said. “Good because we really depend on digital technologies. If we did not have these advanced digital technologies, we would not be able to use Zoom or other things for teaching and teleconference. We would not be able to continue factories in many areas because workers have not returned to work entirely, “he said. “But at the same time, from the same token, it increases the request for automation. If the automation process was going too far or had negative effects, as we find, then these will also multiply. So we have to take them into account. »»
Read “robots and jobs: evidence of the American labor markets”