Tesla (Tsla 1.08%)) CEO Elon Musk has an optimistic forecasting history on the company. And during his conference calling with investors for the fourth quarter of 2024 (ended on December 31), he made his most daring prediction to date.
He thinks that Tesla could be the most precious company in the world one day, with greater market capitalization than the next five combined companies. When writing these lines, the five largest companies in the world are Apple,, Nvidia,, Microsoft,, AmazonAnd Alphabetwhich has a combined value of 14.7 billions of dollars.
Could Tesla really be worth as much in the future? A new opportunity of 10 billions of dollars could be the secret to get there, according to Musk, and that has nothing to do with electric vehicles (EV). Read the rest.


Image source: Tesla.
Tesla’s main activity is in difficulty at the moment
Before diving into Tesla’s potential, it is important to contact the elephant in the room: its core business, selling a passenger EVS, Don’t go so well. The company delivered 1.78 million cars in 2024, a drop of 1% compared to 2023.
This is not good news given that sales of electric vehicles of passengers still represent almost 79% of the total turnover of the company.
Not so long ago, Musk Planned an annual growth of 50% of deliveries on this subject, but a series of challenges, such as the increase in competition and the softening of the demand for electric vehicles, attenuated Tesla sales.
In addition, Musk feels absolutely certain that autonomous vehicles are the future, therefore rather than engaging in a downward race by producing cheaper and cheaper vehicle vehicles, he wants rather that Tesla focuses on her new Cybercab Robotaxi.
Cybercab will work entirely on Tesla’s complete autonomous driving (FSD) software, so it will not come with pedals or even a steering wheel. The 13 FSD version is now available in beta mode, and owners of Tesla passenger vehicles can test it in the real world in a supervised way. It is the most advanced version so far.
According to the latest company security report, cars using the 13 FSD version are involved in an accident for 5.9 million miles conducted, compared to the typical American driver, which crashes once every 700,000 Miles on average. Consequently, Musk thinks that there will be Tesla vehicles entirely on the FSD not supervised in Austin, Texas, as well as several other cities by the end of 2025.
Autonomous driving could transform Tesla’s economy. Rather than simply selling cars, the company can build a massive breeding network for its cybercabs, which can earn income by transporting passengers and making sales deliveries 24 hours a day. Wood’s Cathie Ark Investment Management thinks that it will be an opportunity of 14 dollars by 2027, and other Wall Street analysts also called this a market from a dollars Billion for Tesla.
The opportunity of 10 dollars billions: Optimus
Cybercab’s opportunity could pale compared to Optimus, a humanoid robot that Musk is more excited than any other product in the history of the company. He says he is probably a thousand times more uses than a car, which means that it can be sold in a variety of different markets.
Musk says that several thousand optimus robots will be used internally in Tesla this year to complete the repetitive jobs that humans do not want to do, such as the transport of the sheet to a welding line. They could possibly be deployed in factories around the world in countless industries, and they could also be popular in households to perform basic cleaning tasks.
In fact, Musk thinks that humanoid robots will exceed humans by 2040. He thinks that Tesla will make them at a cost of around $ 20,000, which opens the door at a selling price of less than $ 30,000. This price will probably decrease over time as the company becomes more efficient and competitors enter the market.
Musk offered ambitious targets at his conference call for the fourth quarter with investors. He thinks that production production will potentially increase five -year each year from now to 100 million annual units.
In the long term, he says that Optimus could generate north of $ 10 billions of income.
Tesla’s stock is extremely expensive
If Tesla market capitalization ultimately exceeds the combined value of AppleNvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, it will result in a stock market course of around $ 4,660. This implies an increase of 1,200% of the place where it is negotiated today.
The prospect of a return 12 times seems attractive, but investors must consider potential risks. Tesla profit by action (EPS) plunged 53% in 2024 to $ 2.04, placing its stock at a Price / benefit ratio (P / E) from 190.7. This means that the stock is significantly more expensive than Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet at the moment:
Tesla stock should drop by 78% just to negotiate with the means of these five shares (40.2). It is the disadvantage potential that investors could face if Musk and his team fail to give birth to significant progress on platforms like FSD and Optimus over the next year.
I think 2025 will be a year of transition for the company. Cybercab should not reach mass production before 2026, and optimus production figures will probably have been nominal for several years. In fact, Musk is not entirely confident Tesla will achieve its 10,000 humanoid goal this year.
This means that its financial performance will depend almost exclusively on sales of electric passenger vehicles for at least the next 12 months. Since they decreased last year, this makes the company’s assessment even more difficult to spread.
I do not recommend investors to jump into Tesla’s actions today, but if they do it, they must be ready to hold it for at least the next five years to maximize their chances of positive performance.