The United States is struggling with labor shortages caused by long-term demographic changes that could wreak havoc on economic growth for years to come. Meanwhile, the progress of models of large languages and generative artificial intelligence should lead to transformative innovations in industries, manufacturing health care and beyond.
These convergent trends should lead the development of so-called humanoids, advanced robots with arms, legs, hands and generative “brains” powered by AI. And the adoption of these people in the form of people could occur even faster than that of autonomous vehicles. This could create opportunities for investors in sectors and companies that develop robots and their key components, as well as those who can benefit from the integration of humanoids in their workforce.
“Think of the wide variety of tasks that humans are capable of performing with our bare hands or using tools, then the multitude of machines designed for human hands and fingers,” said Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley chief of world automobiles and shared mobility research. “While the growth of the working population in advanced economies continues to decrease, humanoids can prove to be a requirement for industries which are already confronted with difficulties in attracting enough workers to remain productive.”
Morgan Stanley analysts believe that in 2040, the United States could have 8 million humanoid robots that operate, with an impact of $ 357 billion on wages. By 2050, analysts expect the number to reach 63 million, which is potentially concerned 75% of professions, 40% of employees and approximately 3 billions of dollars in pay.
“The marketing of humanoid robots will be faced with many challenges, mainly social and political acceptance given their important potential to disturb such a large part of the world workforce,” explains Jonas, noting that up to 70% of construction jobs and 67% of agriculture, fishing and forestry could be affected. “And although they are not the best solution, they are an increasingly necessary solution for a world faced with immense challenges of longevity.”
Moving parts
From the point of view of engineering, humanoids are easier to develop than autonomous vehicles which, after all, are simple robots operating in a very complex, dynamic and unpredictable environment. While autonomous vehicles have only three physical outlets (steering wheel, accelerator pedal and brake pedal), humanoid robots can have dozens of points of movement with arms, legs and hands. But unlike an autonomous vehicle leading on a real road, humanoid robots can learn and operate in relative security in a site or a controlled factory. These factors suggest that the marketing of humanoids will occur faster than AV.
The sectors most likely to benefit from the progress of humanoid robots are those that have the greatest amount of dangerous physical work. According to the American office of labor statistics, transport and storage, construction, manufacturing, agriculture and mining are among the most dangerous industries to work, which means that companies that deploy humanoids could obtain an advantage. Meanwhile, jobs with the most repetitive, boring or dangerous tasks, and the most unionized or highest labor costs could also face humanoid disturbances.
“We believe that humanoids have the potential to save cost from around $ 500,000 to $ 1 million per human worker over 20 years,” said Jonas. Analysts believe that the cost of building a humanoid robot could operate from $ 10,000 to $ 300,000, depending on how they are configured and how they will be used.
Finally, humanoids that can imitate human expression and communication – such as Star Wars droids – can facilitate the way for their acceptance in other categories, including health care and education, and work functions that force them to collaborate with humans.
Optimistic future
The development of humanoids that can navigate in complex human environments will probably require continuous progress in generative AI, as well as refinement of movement capacities, sensors and battery capacity. Although the advanced development of humanoid in itself in the early stages, the progress of these technologies in recent years have given a significant boost.
“Investors have opportunities in” catalysts “- sectors and companies that will strengthen components and assemble and market the finished humanoids,” explains Ed Stanley, head of European thematic research in Morgan Stanley. “These are in particular companies that make the generator AI that will feed the robot brain, the mechanisms that make their body work and the battery storage necessary to supply them. Additional development in these three areas will be the key to marketing humanoid. ”
Companies will have to tackle a myriad of regulatory and security problems, in addition to decline in the labor market quarters. But as with previous technological jumps in business – automation, IT, electronic commerce and now a generative AI – the company should adapt over time.
“We see a more optimistic future than that painted by technological deactivation, in which robots continue to supplement and further improve human work and productivity and that in which banal and dangerous work can be outsourced,” explains Stanley. “Although the way to reach the viability of the market and on a large scale can take decades to play, we think that there will be a number of developments and milestones in humanoid components in the next year.”
For more information and deeper analyzes, ask your Morgan Stanley representative or your financial advisor the full report, “humanoids: Investment implications of the embodied AI” (June 26, 2024).