- Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman predicts AGI is more than two years away.
- Its chronology contrasts with Sam Altmanwhich suggests that AGI is achievable “with current hardware”.
- Definitions of AGI vary, with Suleyman emphasizing a broad system of human-level learning.
Mustafa SolimanMicrosoft’s AI CEO has indicated that the timeline for AI advancements will be much longer than Sam Altman predicted.
During a interview on The Verge’s Decoder, Suleyman gave his opinion on when general artificial intelligence – AI with human-level task mastery – will become feasible. In October, Altman, co-founder and CEO of OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, said AGI was “feasible with current hardware.” He spoke during an “ask me anything” session on Reddit.
Altman didn’t specify exactly what he meant by “current hardware,” although Decoder host Nilay Patel defined it as one to two generations of technology.
Suleyman agreed with this timeline, but with some important caveats. He told Patel that AGI would be more plausible in the next two to five generations.
“I don’t want to say that I think it’s highly likely that it will be in two years, but I think in the next five to seven years, since each generation now takes 18 to 24 months,” Suleyman said.
He added that five generations of technology, such as new versions of Nvidia’s GB200 chipscould be in a decade.
“The uncertainty about this is so great that any categorical statement seems unfounded and exaggerated to me,” Suley said.
A few weeks after his statement on Reddit, Altman spoke at the New York Times DealBook Summit in early December. He said the AGI would come sooner than expected but “would matter a lot less.”
Suleyman says people have different definitions of AGI. He defines it as “a general-purpose learning system that can work well in all human-level training environments,” including physical labor.
Meanwhile, OpenAI’s website defines AGI as “a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at the most economically profitable work.”
“The challenge with AGI is that it has become so dramatized that we kind of end up not focusing on the specific capabilities of what the system can do,” Suleyman said.
Regardless of how Altman defines AGI, OpenAI would work to remove a clause from its contract with Microsoft intended to prevent misuse of AGI. Suleyman nevertheless says he is confident in Microsoft’s multibillion-dollar investment in OpenAI.
“Naturally in any partnership there is little tension here and there, but fundamentally we will win together,” he told Patel.