VERNOR VINGE offers an interesting – and potentially terrifying prediction – essay Entitled “The technological singularity to come: how to survive in post-human era”. He claims that humanity will develop superhuman intelligence before 2030.
The test specifies four ways that this could happen:
- Scientists could develop progress in artificial intelligence (AI).
- IT networks could somehow become self -aware.
- Human IT interfaces Become so advanced that humans evolve mainly in a new species.
- The progress of the biological sciences allow humans to physically ingest human intelligence.
Of these four possibilities, the first three could lead to the control of the machines. While Vinge addresses all the possibilities of his test, he spends the most time discussing the first.
VINGE Theory
Computer technology is progressing at a faster rate than many other technologies. Computer tend to double in power every two years approximately. This trend is linked to the law of Moore, which indicates that transistors double every 18 months.
Vinge says that in this rhythm, it is only a matter of time before humans build a machine that can “think” like a human.
But the material is only part of the equation. Before artificial intelligence became a reality, someone will have to develop software that will allow a machine to analyze data, make decisions and act independently.
If that happens, we can expect to see machines start to design and build better machines. These new machines could build faster and more powerful models.
Robots like this may seem cute, but could they plot your fall?
Yoshikazu Tsuno / AFP / Getty Images
Robots like this may seem cute, but could they plot your fall?
Technological progress would move at a stocky pace. The machines could improve. Humans would become obsolete in the computer world. We would have created superhuman intelligence.
Progress would happen faster than we could recognize them. In short, we reach the singularity.
What would happen next?
Vinge says that it is impossible to say. The world would become such a different landscape that we can only make the wildest assumptions. Vinge admits that even if it is probably not fruitful to suggest possible scenarios, it is always very fun. Perhaps we will live in a world where the conscience of each person merges with a computer network.
Or maybe the machines will perform all our tasks for us and let us live in luxury. But what happens if the machines consider humans to be redundant-or worse? When the machines reach the point where they can repair themselves and even create better versions of themselves, could they arrive at the conclusion that humans are not only useless, but also undesirable?
It certainly seems to be a scary scenario. But is Vingge’s vision of the future a certainty? Is there a way to avoid it?