In 1965, professor of philosophy Hubert Dreyfus, a fervent critic of artificial intelligence, boldly said that a machine would never beat a human in chess. It would only take two years before the skeptical scientist himself was checked by a computer developed by the MIT.
In 1997, the machines were sufficiently advanced to defeat one of the greatest failures of his time – Garry Kasparov. In 2015, the best player in our species of the very intuitive and “human” game of Go has repeatedly conceded to Google’s computer.
With the rapid technological progression of recent years, computers are increasingly encroaching on areas that were previously considered exclusively human. Amazing progress in fields such as artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, 3D printing and genetics have enabled computers to perform the tasks of architects, doctors, music composers and even a 16th Century Dutch Master of Painting.
Almost every day bring news of remarkable exploits made by computers or robots, and with them a question of rodent: will the machines get us out of brain work?
This question is even more disturbing by the Recently revealed world population trends. The latest ONA ONA data show that, by 2050, our population is expected to reach 9.8 billion people, more than 6 billion of which will be working age. In the meantime, we already have trouble finding a decent job 71 million Young people around the world.
It is easy to see why new technologies are increasingly considered a major threat to labor markets. Certain estimates even say that 80% of jobs are narcotics run the risk of being automated in the coming decades.
A New report of the Division of Policy and Analysis of the development of the ONA of the ONA (DPAD) finds that some of these calculations are unrealistic. Based on the historical lessons of past industrial revolutions and from a richness of current research, the study offers several reasons why our planet is not on the right track to become the world of a robot.
First of all, artificial intelligence, 3D printers and other innovations are generally designed to excel in a very specific set of tasks. They will rarely be able to replace an entire occupation, which, in most cases, requires much more versatility and adaptability.
Second, new technologies destroy not only, but also create jobs. “Throughout history, technological innovations have improved the productivity of workers and created new products and markets, thus generating new jobs in the economy. It will not be different for AI, 3D printing and robotics, ”explains the report.
Third, it is not because it is technically possible to replace an entire profession with computers. Various economic, legal, regulatory and socio-political factors will prevent many professions from disappearing. A recent study revealed that in 2016, only one of the 270 professions listed in the 1950 American census had been eliminated by automation – that of an elevator operator.
In many cases, people will continue to do the work cheaper than machines. In others, we will have to make difficult legal and political choices. For example, who should be held responsible for the poor diagnosis of a medical AI – the system manufacturer, the programmer or the doctor?
But even if our nearest future is in no way similar to the whole of Blade runner Or other dystopian science fiction films, we must not minimize the disturbances that AI, robotics and other innovations are already bringing.
New technologies contribute to the increase in inequalities – both between different groups of workers and between work and business owners. Although they do not cause loss of generalized jobs, they modify the demand of certain skills and contribute to an evolution towards more flexible but precarious arrangements of “contingent work”.
Technology is one of the reasons for increasing disparities in the workforce in many countries, employees of the average salary losing ground. Internationally, lack of access to new technologies in the least developed countries and rapid gains in the manufacture of powers threaten to further increase inequalities between countries.
If they are not controlled, these disturbances caused by advanced technologies can have enormous consequences for companies. This is a sufficient reason for political decision -makers to closely examine technological progress: what it means for their country and how to best intervene.
“History shows that new technologies can lead to big gains for our savings, but are not without pain for certain people and communities. The global impact will strongly depend on social institutions and policies, “said Pingfan Hong, director of DPAD. “Policies are necessary to help workers adapt to the new reality and guarantee their participation in the advantages resulting from technology.”
Governments may be tempted to focus on the advantages of technological progress, while largely ignoring its negative impacts. Low -income countries are particularly vulnerable unless political decision -makers clearly understand the risks and potential of these new technologies. The sooner we start to rethink and repaint labor market policies, social security regimes and tax systems, the better we will adapt to the future that already occurs.