In the classic of Edward Bellamy BackProtagonist Julian West wakes up from a sleep of 113 years and notes that the United States in 2000 has changed considerably compared to 1887. People cease to work at the age of forty-five and devote their Life in the mentorship of other people and to engage in a volunteer work that benefits the global community. There are short weeks of work for employees, and everyone receives all advantages, food and accommodation.(1)
The reason is that the new technologies of the period allowed people to be very productive while working part -time. Companies do not need a large number of employees, so individuals can devote most of their hours of awakening to hobbies, volunteering and community services. In collaboration with periodic work stays, they have time to pursue new skills and personal identities independent of their work.
In the current era, developed countries can be on the verge of a similar transition. Robotics and automatic learning have improved productivity and improved the savings of many nations. Artificial intelligence (AI) has progressed in finance, transport, defense and energy management. The Internet of Objects (IoT) is facilitated by high -speed networks and remote sensors to connect people and businesses. In all of this, it is possible for a new era that could improve the lives of many people.(2)
However, in the midst of these possible advantages, there is a great fear that robots and AI will take jobs and throw millions of people into poverty. A Study of the Pew Research Center Interviewed 1,896 experts in the impact of emerging and found technologies
“Half of these experts (48%) consider a future in which robots and digital agents (will have) moved a significant number of workers in blue and white collars – who express a lot of concerns that this will result in a considerable increase in the ‘ Inequality of income, masses of people who are actually without work and ruptures of social order. »»(3)
These fears were taken up by detailed analyzes showing an impact of automation from 14 to 54% on jobs. For example, a Bruegel analysis noted that “54% of EU jobs (are) at risk of computerization”.(4) By using European data, they argue that job losses are likely to be significant and that people should prepare for large -scale disturbances.
Meanwhile, researchers at the University of Oxford, Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, say that technology will transform many sectors of life. They studied 702 professional groups And found that “47% of American workers have a high probability of seeing their work automated over the next 20 years”.(5)
A Analysis of the McKinsey Global Institute Out of 750 jobs have concluded that “45% of paid activities could be automated using” technologies currently demonstrated “and. . . 60% of professions could contain 30% or more of their automated processes. »»(6) A more recent MCKINSEY report“Lost jobs, the jobs won,” noted that 30% of “work activities” could be automated by 2030 and up to 375 million workers worldwide could be affected by emerging technologies.(7)
Researchers from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) focused on “tasks” as opposed to “jobs” and have found fewer job losses. Using data related to the tasks of 32 OECD countries, they estimated that 14% of jobs are highly automatable and 32 others have a significant risk of automation. Although their job loss estimates are less than that of other experts, they have concluded that “low -qualified workers are likely to bear the weight of adjustment costs, as the automatic work is higher by report to highly qualified workers. “(8)
Although some dispute the disastrous predictions on the reasons for new positions will be created to compensate for job losses, the fact that all of these major studies report significant labor disturbances should be taken seriously. If the impact of employment drops to the average of 38% of these forecasts, Western democracies could probably resort to authoritarianism as happened in certain countries during the great depression of the 1930s in order to keep their populations reluctant under control. If this happened, the rich elites would require armed guards, security details and closed communities to protect themselves, as is the case in poor countries today with high income inequalities. The United States would resemble Syria or Iraq, with armed bands of young men with little job prospects other than war, violence or theft.
However, even if the work ramifications reside more at the bottom of the disturbance, the political consequences will always be serious. Relatively low increases in unemployment or underemployment have an excessive political impact. We have seen that a decade ago, when 10% unemployment during the big recession caused the Tea Party and finally helped make Donald Trump president.
With a disturbance of the workforce practically guaranteed by the trends already underway, it is sure to predict that American policy will be chaotic and turbulent in the coming decades. While innovation accelerates and public anxiety intensifies, the populists of the right and the left Jockey for the support of the voters. Government control could be established between very conservative and very liberal leaders, because each party blames a different set of scapegoats for the economic results that voters do not like. The calm and foreseeable policy of the post-second world war era will probably become a distant memory when the American system is heading towards Trumpism on steroids.
(1) Edward Bellamy, Rack: 2000-1887Houghton-Mifflin, 1888.
(2) Darrell M. West, The future of work: robots, AI and automationBrookings Institution Press, 2018.
(3) Aaron Smith and Janna Anderson, “AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs”, Pew Research Center, August 6, 2014.
(4) Jeremy Bowles, “Chart of the week: 54% of EU jobs at risk of computerization”, blog post, Bruegel.org, July 24, 2014.
(5) Carl Benedict Frey and Michael Osborne, “The future of employment: to what extent are computerization jobs sensitive?” Oxford University Paper, September 17, 2013.
(6) Ben Schiller, “How long before your work was done by a robot?” Fast businessJanuary 6, 2016.
(7) James Manyika, Susan Lund, Michael Chui, Macques Bughin, Jonathan Woetzel, byul Batra, Ryan Ko and Saurabh Sangui, “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gend: WorkForce Transitions in A Time of Automation”, McKinsey Global Institute, December 2017.
(8) Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory and Ulrich Zierahn, “the risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries”, organization of economic cooperation and development, work document 189, 2016.