What you need to know
- Sam Altman recently reported that OpenAI is on track to achieve artificial generative intelligence (AGI) within the next 5 years with current hardware. He added that this criterion would have “surprisingly little” impact on society.
- Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicts that AGI will be reached in 2026 or 2027 based on extrapolated curves of the progress of advanced AI models.
- A new report suggests that OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to develop advanced AI models due to a lack of high-quality data and sufficient funds.
Despite growing concerns about the rapid advancement of generative AI development, including a 99.9% probability that it will end humanity, companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Anthropic and Google continue to chase the AI bubble. And it is not possible for AI advances to reach their end goal: rather, it is a never-ending cycle riddled with critical challenges.
For example, a new report suggests that key players in the AI landscape are struggling to develop and maintain advanced models. This barrier has been attributed to the lack of high-quality training content and the high cost of maintaining these advanced models. OpenAI is a great case study in this regard, as it was recently spotted chasing the AI hype with reports of bankruptcy and projections of a $5 billion loss over the next 12 month.
A $6.6 billion funding round from investors including Microsoft and NVIDIA could have saved the maker of ChatGPT from bankruptcy. Nonetheless, market analysts predict that more problems are brewing for the AI company, which could include $44 billion in losses before turning a profit in 2029. This massive loss is partly linked to the multi-billion partnership of the company’s dollars with Microsoft. Forecasts further suggest that Microsoft could acquire OpenAI over the next three years, as investor interest in AI hype fades and ChatGPT maker fails to secure funding from investors for its sophisticated advances in AI.
AGI seems to be a stretch amid all the adversity
It seems that most companies invested in the AI landscape are engaged in an arms race for supremacy, being AGI. It is questionable whether Microsoft, OpenAI and Google will release their AI models in unison, or even within weeks or months of each other, with similar capabilities as they strive to achieve the coveted AI benchmark. artificial general intelligence (AGI).
However, more than ever, the reference continues to elude them. AI companies lack high-quality content to build advanced AI models. Not to mention the vast resources needed to make this possible, including “$7 trillion and many years to build 36 semiconductor factories and additional data centers.”
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has previously indicated that he is not too concerned about the company spending on AI advancements, but about delivering successful AI tools to users:
“I think giving people really great tools and letting them figure out how they’re going to use them to build the future is a really good thing to do, and it’s extremely valuable, and I’m very willing to bet on your ingenuity .everyone in the world to know what to do about it There’s probably a more business-minded person than me at OpenAI who worries about how much we’re spending, but I don’t at all.
Likewise, Altman hasn’t been shy about talking about his long-term AGI dream. The executive recently said superintelligence is “a few thousand days away.” But as it appears now, the executive could have a more defined timeline for achieving the AGI, reducing it to 5 years:
“I think in 5 years, it looks like we’ll have an incredibly rapid rate of improvement in the technology itself. People are like, man, the AGI moment comes and goes. The rate of progress is totally crazy, and we discover all these new developments, both on AI and research, but also on all the rest of science.
Contrary to popular belief, Sam Altman claims that AGI’s impact on society would be “surprisingly small.” He will just run past. He added that AGI is achievable with current hardware, but otherwise, “you’ll be happy to have a new device.”
A former OpenAI researcher said the AI company was close to reaching AGI, but warned that the company was not fully prepared or equipped to handle everything that entailed. Sam Altman admits that the AI revolution could lead to radical societal changes with rapid scientific advancement.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei believes AGI will be reached by 2026 or 2027 (via @tsarnick on). Its prediction is based on extrapolated progression curves of AI models, which are currently approaching doctorate level intelligence. He admits that the models lack critical modalities, but indicates that they are gradually taken into account while citing the launch of Anthropic’s Computer Use API.
The CEO also discussed the limitations of scaling AI while highlighting several disincentives, including the lack of high-quality data to develop advanced AI models. He says they encountered these problems and always found a solution: work around the limitations or evolve the AI models. He concluded by stating that human intelligence is not the ceiling of intelligence. “There is plenty of room at the top for AIs to become smarter,” Amodei added.